Partial results from Israel’s general election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc narrowly ahead of its rival. Even so, it is short of a majority in parliament.
With 93 percent of ballots counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies were on course for 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. A rival bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was set for 48 seats. Both leaders say they will try to form a coalition.
Arab-led parties are on track to win a record 19 seats. That could make them kingmakers. However, all but one of the Jewish parties have pledged not to work with them.
Officials began counting up to 480,000 absentee ballots on Thursday. They come from soldiers, diplomats and hospital patients, among others. These votes could still change the final seat count.
Once the results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult all factions. He will then invite the leader with the best chance of success to form a government. That process could take weeks. If it fails, the country would face another election.
Turnout and Early Claims
Herzog praised the 77.7 percent turnout in Tuesday’s vote. It was the highest in more than two decades. He expects official results next week and urged all parties to come to talks “with an open mind” to avoid another election.
Early exit polls had given Eisenkot’s “Change Bloc” between 52 and 53 seats, against 50 for Netanyahu’s camp. Later updates showed a tie in two projections and a narrow Netanyahu lead in one. Netanyahu then declared a “great majority” and called for “a strong right-wing national government.” Eisenkot said the public had “spoken in favour of change.”
The actual count favoured Netanyahu more than the exit polls had. Even so, his bloc’s 53 seats are 15 fewer than it held in the last Knesset.
It was the first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Key issues included accountability for the security failures of that day, the conduct of the wars, military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men and judicial reforms.
Arab Parties in Focus
The United Arab List and the Joint List are set to almost double their seats. Turnout surged among Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of the population.
United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said he hopes the numbers will allow his party and the Change Bloc to reach 61 seats. Yair Golan, who leads the left-wing Democrats, said there was an opportunity to form a change government with the Arab parties.
However, Eisenkot has attached conditions to any such alliance. These include recognising Israel as Jewish and democratic, and treating Hamas as a terrorist group. The right-wing parties in his bloc have flatly rejected the idea. Joint List head Yousef Jabareen said the opposition “cannot dictate any conditions.”
Likud Allegations and Foreign Funding Probe
Likud has accused the Arab parties of “stealing” the election. It told the Central Elections Committee (CEC) they used “bribery, threats, violence, fraud” and prohibited software. The party gave no evidence. The CEC said it would look into the claims as part of a post-election review.
On Thursday, CEC chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg ordered the Shin Bet to investigate “serious suspicions” of improper influence through foreign funding. He gave no details. Haaretz cited a source saying the claim involved Qatar funding efforts to raise Arab turnout.
Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh, who is part of the Joint List, rejected the allegation. He said the losing side was “constructing a racist blood libel.”
