Israel’s election looks set to leave neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor his rival Gadi Eisenkot with a clear majority. Arab-led parties could end up deciding who governs.
Results are still coming in. Even so, Netanyahu’s Likud appears to be the largest single party. It has done better than many expected.
Netanyahu’s bloc just short
Netanyahu’s bloc includes ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. It appears to be just short of the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat parliament. Analysts warn that this could change. The early count leaned towards areas with strong right-wing support.
Turnout passed 77%. Many had forecast a dramatic deadlock, and that is how things look so far.
Eisenkot’s difficult path
Eisenkot is a former army chief. He would struggle to command a majority without Arab-led parties. According to partial results, those parties have equalled or improved on their previous record number of seats.
Arab Israelis make up one-fifth of the population. Many identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. They appeared to vote in unprecedented numbers this time.
During the campaign, most Jewish opposition parties pledged not to work with Arab-majority lists. They cited a lack of shared values. Even so, the Arab parties could become kingmakers if others agree to join forces with them.
Uncounted ballots could shift the picture
Many absentee ballots have yet to be counted. They mostly come from soldiers. A clear picture is not expected for another day or two.
Both leaders claim a mandate
Both men addressed supporters overnight. Each pledged to form the next government.
Netanyahu said the right-wing bloc had a “decisive majority” among the Jewish public. He stopped short of declaring victory. “We must form a strong, national, right-wing government,” he said.
Eisenkot told his Yashar party that “the public has chosen change”. He said Israelis had voted against Netanyahu remaining prime minister. He promised to work for a stable government and to move quickly.
A divided country
The election was a vote on Netanyahu’s leadership. He faces a corruption trial and denies the charges. It was also a vote on what kind of country Israel should be.
Netanyahu and his partners have taken a hardline religious and nationalist course over four years. Mass protests over their judicial overhaul came before the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Those attacks triggered wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Voting patterns have barely shifted, however. Pollster Tamar Hermann of the Israeli Democracy Institute said the weight of the pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps is about equal. Many had expected Netanyahu to fall after October 7. He did not.
The Arab party question
The main question is whether the opposition “change bloc” will break a taboo and seek a deal with Arab parties. Avigdor Lieberman, one of the bloc’s leaders, said he would not join a minority government that relied on their support.
Mansour Abbas leads Ra’am, the smaller of the two Arab lists. He was part of the coalition that briefly unseated Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022. He wants to join the next government. He said politicians in Israel say one thing before elections and another after them.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his allies have started a campaign to delegitimise the Arab parties. They portray them as a threat from within.
What happens next
Final results will go to President Isaac Herzog next week. He will consult the leaders of all elected parties. He will then ask the candidate most likely to succeed to try to form a coalition.
That candidate has up to six weeks. If they fail, others may get a chance. If nobody succeeds, a new election will follow in the coming months.
Until then, Netanyahu’s government stays on as a caretaker. It cannot enact major policy changes.
