Nigeria could record 31,400 extra heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a new projection. Experts say the figure is a reason to prepare early.
The estimate comes from the Climate Impact Lab. It places Nigeria among the countries likely to see the sharpest rise in heat deaths as El Niño strengthens. Across the Sahel, the group projects 66,800 extra deaths, and almost half of them would be in Nigeria.
What Global Agencies Are Saying
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have also raised the alarm. They spoke at a joint press conference on October 21.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said this El Niño could be unusually strong. It may peak late in 2026, and its effects could last well beyond that. The agency’s outlook says tropical Pacific sea temperatures could rise 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that about 50 million people could face worse hunger. The African Development Bank adds that the crisis could cost African countries $10 billion to $20 billion. It could also cut their GDP by one to two per cent.
The projections do not mean every community will face the same conditions. They do show why early action matters. Here are 10 steps Nigerians can take.
1. Rely on Official Forecasts
First, check trusted sources. Avoid viral posts and dramatic social media predictions.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) issues forecasts and farming advisories. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) reports on floods and water risks. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) offers disaster guidance.
El Niño does not bring the same weather everywhere. Local updates for your state and local government area are therefore the most useful.
2. Guard Against Extreme Heat
Drink water often. Wear light, loose clothes. Stay in the shade, and avoid hard outdoor work when the sun is strongest.
Some groups face higher risk. They include traders, farmers, construction workers, older people and young children. Employers should provide water, shaded rest spots and regular breaks.
Watch for warning signs. Confusion, collapse or a loss of awareness during intense heat is a medical emergency, and the person needs help immediately.
3. Look Out for Vulnerable People
Heat does not hurt everyone equally. Older people, small children and people with certain health conditions face greater danger. So do those without reliable water or ways to cool down.
Families and neighbours should check on them during hot spells. Help them get water, shade or medical care. Where needed, help them move somewhere safer.
4. Plan for Water Shortages
Check your household water supply now. Fix leaking taps and store clean water in covered containers.
Farmers and livestock owners should estimate how much water they will need in a long dry spell. They should also look into practical ways to conserve it.
Communities that rely on fragile water sources should follow official guidance on availability and quality.
5. Get Your Home Ready for Floods
Dry weather is not the only danger. A burst of heavy rain can overwhelm drains, flood roads and damage homes.
Clear drainage channels where it is safe to do so. Put key documents in waterproof bags. Keep essential medicines within reach, and learn the safer routes out of flood-prone areas.
Agree on a family meeting point. Follow evacuation orders from the authorities. Never walk or drive through floodwater.
6. Pack an Emergency Bag
Households in flood-prone or storm-prone areas should keep a ready bag. It should hold identification documents, medicines, a first-aid kit, a torch and spare batteries. Add a power bank, drinking water, basic food and a list of emergency contacts.
Store valuables above likely flood levels. Preparation matters most in homes with children, older people, persons with disabilities or anyone on regular medication.
7. Farmers Should Adjust Their Plans
Farmers who rely on rain should follow NiMet’s updated forecasts. They should also speak with agricultural extension officers before deciding what to plant.
Erratic rain and long dry spells can upset planting schedules and cut harvests. Depending on local advice, farmers can try suitable crop varieties and staggered planting. Water conservation, better soil moisture management and efficient irrigation can also help. Livestock owners should check their access to water and pasture.
Local forecasts should guide these decisions. The global El Niño warning alone should not.
8. Plan Food Spending Without Panic-Buying
The UN says El Niño could deepen food insecurity. Weather problems could also disrupt farming and transport in Nigeria.
Families can review their budgets and cut food waste. They can also store affordable staples safely and plan meals around familiar foods.
Higher prices are not guaranteed, though. Costs also depend on insecurity, transport, storage, imports and exchange rates.
9. Build an Emergency and Financial Plan
Extreme weather hurts beyond damaged homes and farms. The African Development Bank’s estimate shows the broader economic risk.
Where possible, households should set aside an emergency fund. Keep important documents easy to reach. Decide in advance how you would find food, medicine or temporary shelter if your home became unsafe.
Farmers and small businesses should also prepare backup plans. These should cover disruptions to production, transport or water supply.
10. Share Verified Information and Act Early
Finally, make sure warnings reach the people who need them. Share credible updates from NiMet, NIHSA, NEMA and state emergency agencies. Do not forward claims that drought or catastrophic floods are certain.
Schools, employers, community groups and local authorities can spread heat-safety advice. They can also point people to safe locations.
When officials order an evacuation, leave promptly. Do not wait until conditions turn dangerous.
