Nigerians paid far more for diesel between February and August 2026 than people anywhere else. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) says pump prices rose 82.7 per cent in that period. No other country in its data matched that increase.
What the Report Says
UNCTAD made the finding in its Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development. It released the report on Friday, October 9, 2026. The comparison uses fuel-price data as of August 31.
The agency also warned about the wider damage. Higher energy costs shrink household incomes, and that in turn holds back spending.
Why Fuel Prices Surged
UNCTAD blamed the conflict that damaged energy infrastructure and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It described the disruption as the largest monthly loss of global energy supply on record.
As a result, Brent crude climbed from about $70 to more than $110 per barrel. The agency expects prices to stay more than $30 above pre-conflict levels until the end of 2026.
The shock was global, but poorer regions took the hardest hit. Developing countries in Asia and Africa recorded the steepest rises at the pump.
How Nigeria Ranks
Diesel prices in Nigeria rose faster than in any other country. Three countries followed:
- Lebanon, at 73.6 per cent
- Peru, at 66.7 per cent
- Guatemala, at 66.3 per cent
Petrol also became costlier. Nigeria’s increase of 48.1 per cent was the fourth highest in the report. The leading countries were:
- Myanmar, at 50.7 per cent
- United Arab Emirates, at 49.8 per cent
- Malaysia, at 48.4 per cent
A Mixed Picture for Oil Exporters
Higher crude prices do bring some gain. UNCTAD listed Nigeria, Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan as exporters that stand to benefit. For Nigeria, stronger prices could lift export earnings.
Even so, the report urged caution. Where local refining falls short, countries must still import fuel at higher prices. Nigeria has expanded its refining capacity. However, continued petrol imports leave local prices tied to global swings.
Signs of Less Import Dependence
Local data in the report point to some progress. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 50 million litres of petrol per day to the domestic market in the first half of 2026.
Meanwhile, daily petrol imports fell by 26 per cent in August. They dropped to 14.6 million litres from 19.7 million litres in July.
The import bill also shrank sharply. In the first quarter of 2026, it fell by 96.15 per cent to N87.40 billion. A year earlier, it stood at N2.27 trillion.
Import Licences Still in Play
Imports have not disappeared from the market. In September, a Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to keep issuing import licences to three firms. They are Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa. The order applies subject to statutory and regulatory requirements.
The Longer-Term Fix
UNCTAD also looked beyond the current crisis. It said electric motorbikes and buses could cut reliance on petrol and diesel. In its view, wider use would also strengthen energy security and cushion future price shocks.
